The latest global economic outlook provides a G7 scorecard with some clear winners and losers. On growth, the United States and the United Kingdom are the clear leaders for 2025. However, on the critical measure of inflation, the UK lags badly, projected to have the worst performance in the entire group.
The US is expected to top the growth league with 2% GDP growth this year. The UK follows in a strong second place, with its forecast revised up to 1.3%. This positive growth story has been highlighted by the UK government as a sign of economic strength.
But the scorecard’s inflation column tells a different story. The report projects UK inflation will hit 3.4% in 2026, the highest in the G7. It is expected to remain the group’s inflation leader into 2027, indicating a deep-seated and persistent problem with price stability that separates it from its peers.
This mixed scorecard is set against a global backdrop of “unexpected resilience” but a “dim” future. The world economy as a whole has seen its 2025 growth upgraded to 3.2%, but this is considered a temporary state before the delayed impact of trade tariffs and other risks take hold.
The report also warns of risks that could shuffle the rankings, including a US immigration crackdown that could hurt its own growth, and a potential “correction” in global stock markets. For now, the G7 scorecard shows a world of diverging fortunes, with the UK’s high-growth, high-inflation profile making it a notable outlier.