American consumers are reeling from the impact of US oil prices as the Iran war deepens its energy market disruption into a third week. Analyst Patrick De Haan projects Monday pump prices of $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon, while cautioning that $4 fuel is still possible. The deepening impact of the conflict on global oil supply is being translated directly into higher costs at every gas station across the country.
The impact began building on February 28, when the US-Israel strikes on Iran first disrupted global oil supply chains and triggered a sustained rise in prices. From below $3 per gallon before the war, the national average has climbed 23% to $3.70, leaving consumers to absorb a significant and rapid increase in transportation costs. Consumer surveys have reported a sharp drop in confidence and a reduction in discretionary spending as households reallocate budgets to cover higher fuel costs.
The US attack on Kharg Island last Friday, targeting the hub of Iran’s oil export network, deepened the supply disruption and added to consumer concerns about future price trajectories. Iran’s maintenance of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has perpetuated the removal of roughly 20% of global daily oil supply from international markets. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 after briefly hitting $100 the day before.
California’s consumers are the most severely affected, with average pump prices above $5 and Los Angeles stations in some areas exceeding $8 per gallon. Diesel for trucking and rail could reach $5.15 per gallon nationally, further driving up consumer goods prices. Oil company executives from Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each engaged the White House on the crisis, with Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods warning specifically that speculative trading risks deepening the consumer impact beyond what supply conditions alone would cause.
Wall Street opened Monday with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising around 1% as crude prices briefly retreated. Oil company shares have hit record highs overall since the conflict began. The consumer impact of the US oil price crisis will continue to deepen as long as the Iran war persists and the global energy supply disruption remains unaddressed.