Japan is set to drop from fourth to sixth place in the global economic rankings by 2027, as projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This change is expected as India and the United Kingdom surpass Japan in nominal gross domestic product (GDP). According to the IMF estimates, Japan’s nominal GDP will be $4.34 trillion in 2026 and $4.47 trillion in 2027, impacted by the yen’s weakness against the US dollar and slow economic growth.
India’s economy is poised to reach a nominal GDP of $4.52 trillion in 2027, which would elevate it from sixth to fourth place globally. The UK is also anticipated to surpass Japan, with a projected GDP of approximately $4.49 trillion in the same year. This shift underscores the changing dynamics among the world’s largest economies.
The economic growth projections for these countries vary significantly. Japan’s real GDP is expected to grow by just 0.7% annually in both 2026 and 2027. In contrast, India is forecast to experience a robust growth rate of 7% on a fiscal-year basis during the same period, driven by strong domestic demand and services sector activity. The UK’s economy is estimated to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, according to the IMF.
Historically, Japan held the position of the world’s second-largest economy for many years until China overtook it in 2010. It further slipped behind Germany in 2023, ranking it fourth. The current projections reflect India’s rising economic influence and a shift in the global economic hierarchy.